05.01.26 - 09.01.26
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSDA +10.56% | AMC +6.45% | TF +2.36% |
COCOA -12.50% | NG -7.40% | VIX -1.52% |
US equity indices are trading close to local highs, but there is currently no strong momentum for further gains. US data remain mixed: the manufacturing sector is still in contraction (ISM Manufacturing PMI below 50), while the services sector remains resilient, preventing a sharp market correction. As a result, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach and are not rushing to increase risk exposure.
The labour market is also sending mixed signals. On the one hand, job growth is slowing and the number of vacancies is declining, pointing to a cooling economy. On the other, the unemployment rate remains low and jobless claims are not increasing. For markets, this means the Fed still lacks sufficient grounds for a rapid rate cut, although discussions around policy easing are becoming more frequent.
In the FX market, the US dollar is moving without a clear direction. It is under pressure from slowing inflation and employment, but a strong services sector and a stable labour market are limiting any significant weakening. In this environment, the dollar remains highly sensitive to incoming data, with sharp moves likely only in the event of clear surprises.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Consumer Price Index EUR/USD | DATE 13.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The key event of the week will be the release of US inflation data. Both headline and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.3% m/m, with annual inflation holding at 2.7%. For the Federal Reserve, such figures imply the need to maintain a cautious approach to policy easing, which generally supports the dollar. If the data meet or exceed expectations, EURUSD may continue to decline towards the 1.1550 area. | |||||
| The US. Retail sales NQ | DATE 14.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales data reflect the resilience of domestic demand, a key driver of the US economy. The forecasted 0.4% m/m increase, following previous weaker performance, would be seen by the market as a sign that consumers remain active despite high interest rates. This supports the outlook for continued economic growth. If the data are strong, the NASDAQ index could extend its upward move, with the nearest target around 26,100 points. | |||||
| The UK. GDP GBP/USD | DATE 15.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy is expected to show zero growth after a decline in the previous month, pointing to a state of stagnation. This dynamic increases uncertainty around the Bank of England’s next steps and limits the potential for sterling to strengthen, especially against the backdrop of more resilient US macroeconomic data. If the data release comes in weaker than expected, GBPUSD may resume its decline towards the 1.3300 level. | |||||
![US Indices End the Year on a Strong Note [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1697986822_13.jpg?itok=uKaV9U7y)
